Macroeconomic instability

Macroeconomic kumupaʻa - ia mea, aole i ka coincidence ma mua o ka noho alii ana. Hana hōʻike i loko o ka hoʻokele waiwai ka mea, aohe koena. Ma hope mai o ka manawa o ka pomaikai a me ka? Acaeoey hiki i ke au o ka recession, pu ma ka nele. A, aneiai pōʻaiapuni a me kekahi mauʻano o ka manawaʻanuʻu, a me nā hiʻona. Penei, e like me ka lōʻihi like ka mea, e pōkole, meakino a me ka lōʻihi.

Pōkole pōʻaiapuni hōʻike 'Dzhozef Kitchin, Beritania economist. He e pili ana ia ia me fluctuations i loko o ke gula me ke koe. Periodicity, a ua hoʻonoho Kitchin, he kanaha mahina.

Wesley Mitchell, i hoʻokumu a econometrics, manaoio aku la ia i ka pōkole pōʻaiapuni kumu moe i loko o ke kālā huli, a ua like ia me ka mea mua alapine (frequency).

I mea, e pili ana i ka nele o ke koena i loko o ka consumer market mau pōʻaiapuni. Loli ma ka aie poepoe i ke kumu o ia, no laila,ʻikeʻia ka mea, i loko o ka palapala o ka aie kamumu.

Ma ka lua o ka hapalua o ka 19th kenekulia, Klement Zhuglyar, he Palani economist, hookolokolo aku la ia i ka awelika pōʻaiapuni. Lākou mau kumu ike aku la oia, he, i loko o ke kula o ka aie. Klement Zhuglyar hōʻike 'i ke alapine (frequency) o ke kiʻekiʻe pōʻaiapuni iʻewalu i ka umi makahiki.

ʻO ia ʻano o nā pōʻaiapuni nā pōʻaiapuni a? Ieoaeunoai ia e Simona Kuznets. He e pili ana ia lakou me ka papa'āweʻaweʻa kemika (kela umikumamalima ole iwakalua makahiki) upgrade hale noho.

Lōʻihi ( 'ole lōʻihi) pōʻaiapuni like paha i kahi ku pono i ka loli ma ka pono, a me ka ikehu kī loea. I ole ia, o ka pōʻaiapuni ua i kapaia o Kondratiev kalapona, e like me ke ao ana o ka Lūkini inoa - Nikolaya Kondrateva. He aʻo lanahu? Iecaianoaaiiuoʻano, kila, ke tina, e like me ka awelika kiʻekiʻe o nā uku, kala, na kalepa a me ka 'ē aʻe nā hoailona ma ka US a me kekahi Western' Eulopa aina no 140 makahiki (mai ka makahiki hope elua o ka 18th kenekulia, a pau na makahiki he iwakalua o ka 20th kenekulia). Kondratyev alakai econometric haʻawina, a hooholoia e na mea he nui pōʻaiapuni hope 54-55 makahiki, oiai e malama ana i ka pii aku, a iho mai ana pae.

Lalo pae ka wā hoʻololi kāna mau 'ōlelo ike loea a me nāʻanoʻenehana hale a mau mai ka 20 a hiki i 25 makahiki.

E ala pae, i ka wa a ke kaiāulu kanaka, uaʻike piʻi i ka pomaikai no hoʻokele waiwai, 'ike loea a me ka' epekema, mau mai ka 25 a hiki i 30 makahiki.

Ke equilibrium i loko o ka hoʻokele waiwai mea nalo no na kumu. Mua, i ka instability i loko o ka nunui pili kēia hilinaʻi nui ma luna o nā kumumea likeʻole me ka oaoieei-lako a? Iecaianoaaiiie. Pinepine loli hoonaukiuki pōkole manawa o ka recession a me ke ola, a me ka poe mea i i emi pinepine (no ka mea hoike, i ka hana o ka hou na alahaka a me nā hale a), e kēia mau manawa hou.

Eia naʻe, macroeconomic instability ua kena ae la, aole wale ma keia ololi. Ma o ka pilikia o ka periodicity o fluctuations i loko o ka hoʻokele waiwai i i koe indifferent kekahi o na economists o 19-20 kenekulia. Ke ho'āʻo nei e maopopo i nā kumu o kēia kŰia, ka mea i hana i ka hailona o okoa theories. I ka papa kuhikuhiE ikaika i wehewehe ia ma ka instability o ka hoʻokele waiwai i loko o ke kēiaʻaoʻao.

1. E like me ke kumumanaʻo mua, i ka hopena o ka hana ua loaʻa ma ka cyclical accelerator a me ka multiplier.

2. Proponents o ka pähola 'o ka pili aupuni pāʻoihana kalapona manaoio i macroeconomic instability aicieeaao like me ka no o ke kulekele'ē aʻe i loko o ka mahinaʻai o ke kala, budgeting, loan a me na auhau.

3. nā defenders o ka pähola 'ana o equilibrium pāʻoihana kalapona kumu e ike ia a kowali ae au i loko o ka pōkole manawa au.

4.ʻepekema theorize maoli pāʻoihana kalapona, paipai i macroeconomic instability ia lŘlŘ ma muli o ka manawa e loli ma kekahi nāʻoihana o ka hoʻokele waiwai, i mea, i ka wa ia hoʻololi? Iecaianoaaiiuo enehana.

Kēlā me kēia no kēia mau kumu o ka manao i kekahi mea i pono hōʻike i nā kumu no ka hoʻokūoʻo kahunapule. Akā, me ka mau kumumanaʻo e makemake ike a pau? Aneiai kula, i kēia lā 'aʻole e nei.